Long Live Frank Fixaris!

Not so sure the ship hasn't already sailed on the Damon not looking like a fool thing. If Heyman has it right and the Tigers are offering 2 years at a bit north of $14M, I don't think Damon has pulled anything special off. Isn't that pretty much what the Yankees were reportedly offering him back in December? His holding out might make him a few thousand bucks extra over that, but it's still a far cry from the multi-year deal he was supposedly seeking at the start of the off-season. He made a gross miscalculation, and he's getting lucky if the Tigers bail him out of it.

but bail him out of it it would, at least to a certain extent. he would be able to have matched the yankees' best offer, whereas most reports have had him lucky to get $4-$5 million on a one year deal. if he pulls that off, i'd say he'd have saved a lot of face.

and damon finally signs. not a bad deal for him considering what people were speculating a month ago. so, detroit trades granderson and signs damon for more money...

Boras must have something on Ilich. Either that, or this is a side deal related to the Pudge Rodriguez signing a few years ago.

so, anyway, its baseball time...time will tell but i as a biased yankee fan feel the already superior yankees improved more this off-season than the sox. only if either lackey or beltre (or both) have exceptional years do i think the sox might get better grades for their off-season moves. granderson, johnson, and vazquez will more than compensate for the losses of damon, matsui and cabrera. i see cc and tex matching or exceeding their 2009 seasons and arod bettering his. i also believe either hughes or joba with another year under his belt will be an exceptional fifth starter and the other a solid set-up man. injuries are always the wild card, and anything can happen but things look pretty good to me. can't wait to see #27 hanging in the stadium while they shoot for #28.

the yankees signed chan ho park. another option for the pen.

Granderson, Johnson, and Vazquez will more than compensate for Damon, Matsui, and Cabrera? You got one thing right, you are definitely viewing things from a biased yankee fan point of view. To start, Damon and Matsui had extremely good years last year. Damon's was pretty close to his best ever year at the plate. I would think that Granderson and Johnson would have to pretty much repeat their career best seasons to fully match what they're replacing in that Yankee lineup. Of course, they might just do that, but they more likely won't be quite that good, throwing into question whether they fully compensated for Damon and Matsui's departure.

So at least as far as they're concerned, the same caveat applies to them that you placed on Lackey and/or Beltre in terms of needing to have exceptional years to consider the Sox off-season better. Frankly, Lackey just going out and doing exactly what he's done every year for the last six will be a VAST improvement over what he's replacing, so he really doesn't need to do anything exceptional to make Theo look good for signing him...just his average year would be fine.

The Yankees should be formidable as always. I think whether they greatly improved their team or just maintained remains to be seen.

Damon's new place he has always seen himself at...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring201 ... id=4937054

rh, you discussed only granderson and johnson and you left out vazquez. the impact of having a number 4 pitcher of his abilities should not be discounted or dismissed. i also believe that when you add the short right field fence to the equation regarding granderson and johnson the idea of both of them having career years is a distinct possibility. certainly, both damon and matsui benefited from it last year.

as for lackey, i know he's got the whole reputation as a gamer, and he's been a solid pitcher throughout his career. he'll probably pitch pretty well for the sox. i also know the whole theory about runs saved and improved defense. still, as i've said before, i don't think starting pitching should have been at the top of list for needs for the sox. if beltre can return to being an offensive force he once was, then that makes up somewhat for the loss of bay and the most likely continuing to diminish (or get traded) bats of lowell and ortiz. but that is a big if.

i believe the yankees maintained or maybe even improved offensively. i think they definitely improved their pitching. the sox definitely improved their pitching as well, but i've got serious doubts that they have even maintained their offensive capabilities, let alone improved them.

I left out Vazquez but I also left out Cabrera. What I was comparing were guys that were direct replacements for one another...Granderson replaces Damon, Johnson replaces Matsui, it's simple, it's clean. There's no real direct way to evaluate Vazquez replacing Cabrera, however, which was how you phrased it (whether you meant it that way or not) so I just ignored them both for simplicity.

Cabrera's replacement really is some combination of Gardner and Winn, I assume. I don't know that that's a net upgrade or even a wash. Even taken as a whole, Granderson/Johnson/Gardner/Winn vs Damon/Matsui/Cabrera, the 2010 guys have a very tall task to duplicate the 2009 guys' production simply because of how good the '09 guys were.

As for Vazquez, he absolutely improves the Yankee rotation. I can't and won't argue against that.

Saw this on CNN:

Alex Rodriguez is back in the doghouse. No one likes being deceived, especially these New York Yankees suits. They are furious over Alex Rodriguez hanging them out to dry, not immediately informing them he had been contacted by the FBI to testify in a matter concerning Anthony Galea, the Canadian doctor linked to the importing of illegal drugs.

New York Daily News

Don't know what his methodology is, but his model has its flaws like any other...

http://www.egrandslam.com/SeasonPredictions2009.html

Cubs win the NL Central by 12? Indians in the AL Central by 5? Mariners 65-97?

http://www.egrandslam.com/SeasonPredictions2008.html

Rays at 75-87? (ok, their run was a surprise to everyone) Tigers winning 96 games?

i've been pretty quiet on the yankee front because i have been crazy busy. the only real topics from camp are the 5th starter and the left fielder. gardner apparently is the starter with winn as a 4th of and hoffman and thames vying for the last roster spot. as for the 5th starter, i was/am a strong supporter of hughes, but kind of find aceves a sentimental favorite. apparently, right now he is the favorite. and joba and hughes as set-up men for a 162 game season does sound pretty good.

i know sox fans are all excited about beckett, lester, lackey, matsuzaka, buccholz, and wakefield but i for one am equally excited about cc, aj, andy, vazquez, hughes, and aceves/mitre/joba. clearly, both rotations have the potential for greatness. potentially, the sox "top 3" has it over the yankees "top 3" (really 2-5 on the yankees could wind up going in any order) but if vazquez comes up big and any of the sox "top 3" struggles or is injured that advantage might not turn out to exist. both buccholz and hughes have the chance to jump way up in their rotation spots from #5 as well. personally, i like the yankees pen a lot more than the sox pen. when you compare how deep this yankees staff is compared to pre-2009 the difference is really quite dramatic. nine days till opening day!

Outside of CC I have little faith in the Yanks' rotation. Burnett, as noted, is due for another season on the DL (last year was the first time in his career that he threw more than 140 innings following a 200 IP season), Hughes has been dreadful thus far as a starter in 28 starts, Pettitte has been steady the past 4 years w/ 194 IP+ each year but that includes a plus 4 ERA each season, and Vazquez has spent four years in the AL and only once has held his ERA under 4.67 for a season.

Even if Burnett stays healthy (4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 2009), this is a rotation that has CC and then a bunch of 4+ ERA guys. Not saying that won't compete with this staff--mainly because their hitting is too good not to make up for it--but 2-5 is not going to make anyone tremble.

That's all true, but I think the risk of the staff collapsing as a unit is pretty slim. Burnett, Pettitte and Vazquez are all pretty consistent from year to year. Pettitte is a breakdown risk due to age, but he's still chugging along so far. Burnett's got the injury rep, but he hasn't had a catastrophic injury since 2003. He's a very good bet to make 25+ starts. And while Vazquez has only had an AL ERA under 4.67 one time, his career AL ERA is 4.52. Even in his off years he's a guy who gives you 200+ innings with, at worst, a league average ERA. And this is for a Yankee team that scored 5.6 runs/game last year and certainly doesn't seem to have lost anything offensively. A 4.5 ERA is still going to win a lot of games.

As for Hughes, those who have known me for awhile won't be surprised to hear me say that I don't put a lot of stock in his major league performance to date. He's not yet 24. Young pitchers tend to struggle, and Hughes is still a young pitcher. His minor league track record indicates that he's definitely a good candidate to take a step forward, and I think he will.

And if any of these guys fail, there's Joba ready to step in, another guy who should - at worst - provide them with a mid-4's ERA.

I don't quite share Jabanga's enthusiasm for the Yankees staff, but I think it's solidly above-average as a group, and that's going to be good enough to win a lot of games.

people have been trying to write off pettitte annually for years and he just keeps getting the job done. he's a winner. vazquez as a number 4 pitcher clearly gives the yankees rotation way more depth than last season regardless of whether he is coming from the nl. and yes, hughes has struggled as a major league starter so far in his young career, but i certainly don't rule out him making a major jump this season, especially with the experience he got last year as a set-up man where he was dominant. i'd love to see more out of aj than we saw last year but if the yankees even get the same mixed in with the addition of vazquez you are looking at an improved staff. yes, the run production helps to get these guys wins, but playing 81 games in yankee stadium definitely adds to their eras as well. in the end, opening day is right around the corner, and we will see. it just seems to me that years of the yankees having an iffy rotation has made questioning it annually a rite of spring for sox fans. i think this year will cement the fact that those years are behind us. this is no longer a team that rises and falls with the success of its offensive production. they have the pitching to win regardless.

I would agree with you on everything but Burnett being consistent year to year. The injuries have made him, IMO, a bit of a wild card entering every year. He has phenomenol stuff, but the fact that last year was the first time he broached 200 IP in consecutive seasons. Add the TJ surgery from 6 or so years ago and his age, and I cannto see this guy staying healthy all that long.

As for young pitchers like Hughes, my thinking is simple; I don't dispute using minor league success to project MLB success, but I would want to see something along the lines of consistency before I buy into it given his lack of MLB success thus far. Sure, not a ton to go on, but the more starts he accumulates w/o that potential coming to fruition and you get to a point where the minor league projections are negated.

Vazquez will be interesting to watch pitching in the launching pad that is the new Yankee Stadium. He's surrendered 110 HR in 4 AL seasons, and 25+ in 6 of 8 of the past seasons. Not horrible, but not promising given his new home stadium.

Yes, this is a rotation that can win, but it does not strike fear in many teams, nor should it.

But I didn't say he's been consistent year to year. I said he hasn't had a catastrophic injury for the last six years, and that he's a strong bet to make 25+ starts.

EDIT for Clarification: When I said Burnett was consistent, I meant in terms of his production (rate stats) when on the mound.


Too bad the old JAB boards are gone, because we had this exact same conversation about Jon Lester two years ago, and I'd like to cut-and-paste my arguments. The basic gist of it is that he's been very young for a major league starter, and almost every 23-year-old improves over the next few years - in other words, his youth trumps his major league record. This is especially when you consider that he was hurt in 2008 when he was at his worst. The other basic gist is that 28 starts is a really small sample size to start writing him off as a major league starter.


I'm not sure why that matters. What matters is are they good enough to win a lot of games, which I believe they are.

I dont think there is a MLB staff that "strikes fear". And the Yanks staff was exactly Scary last season. All they need to do is pitch good enough to win and I think they certainly are capable.

I was watching 30 in 30 or whatever the name was on MLB Network yesterday, and they were previewing the Sox. They went to the predictions for the season, and I think it was Baseball Prospectus had the Sox winning the division, the Rays second, and the Yankees third, six games back.

Must be referring to this.

PECOTA isn't considered the best projection system, but if it ends up looking like that in September, I won't complain.

I think the Yanks may have one guy with 20+ wins. The Sox could have three guys with 18-19 wins. Their #3 was the ace of a perennial playoff contender and Cy Young candidate. 1-3 the Sox are hands down better, no doubt about it. 4 and 5, whatever, the Sox are better, but I'll concede 4 and 5 to you simply because it doesn't much matter. Even at a wash the Sox rotation is better.

And unless the Yanks plan on going 7+ innings deep with all their starters, they are going to have issues. Especially if they have to put Joba in the rotation which, odds are, they will. The likelihood of Burnet not being injured AND Hughes pitching capably the whole season AND Vasquez pitching well in the AL AND Pettitte making 25+ starts seems slim. I'm betting Joba makes 18-20 starts. And that's 18-20 starts where the Yanks pen is 1-deep.

And I know, you'll say everyone says this every year, but Mariano isn't getting younger. He will succumb to age. Everyone does. And there aren't too many guys that can say they were 'great' closers at the age of '40'. Mariano is probably one of them. But it's coming. We all know it is. How long can he keep throwing that cutter (without some sort of PED, that is)?

I'll pick the Yanks to finish 3rd, because I don't think they got better on offense, and I think they are some likely events away from imploding in the pitching department.

i realize you are just "being yourself" with your dire predictions for the yankees' staff, but its just as unrealistic to expect everything to go wrong as it is to expect everything to go right. the yankees did have a couple of seasons where there starting staff did implode, but they did not start the season with an ace like cc and the kind of depth they have now. joba is currently in the pen and if something does come up where another starter is needed it could just as easily be aceves or mitre. even if it was joba, pulling him from the pen doesn't leave the pen "one deep" as you say. if he were to replace hughes because hughes is ineffective (which frankly i believe is not going to happen) then hughes goes to the pen where he was very effective. robertson was also fairly effective last year, marte came back strong in the post-season, they picked up chan ho park, and melancon and albaladejo are still developing. as roaddie has repeatedly pointed out, burnett has not had a recent injury history and hughes is young and this year could definitely be the year he does slide into the rotation for good. as for pettitte making 25+ starts, he seems to do it every year. lastly, until mo isn't mo anymore, he's still mo.

you pick the yankees to finish 3rd because they didn't "get better on offense" but clearly they did get better on pitching. they won 103 games last year without a full season of arod yet you expect them to drop to 3rd because in your opinion the pitching staff is on the verge of an implosion. funny, basically the same guys minus one added dependable starter didn't implode last year...

Well, Arod played about 83% of an expected full season, so don't make it out to be something it's not.

And even last year, when the sox were streaky offensively, getting nothing from Ortiz and Drew at times (and with Bay having his struggles), the Yanks only scored 5% more runs than the Sox.

Not to mention that the Yankees overachived in the wins department. Don't expect another 100 win season. Not with that pen and that outfield.

i expect another 100 win season. i think the pen is a hell of a lot better than you are giving it credit for. i also think granderson is going to have a great season in center. swisher was solid last year but could be even better this year. as for left field gardner/winn/thames is basically the one "weak spot" in the line-up. i think i can live with that.

Gardner/Winn/Thames > Melky Cabrera, and Granderson > Damon.

I honestly can't see a rational argument against the Yankees having another great season. They could certainly suffer a collective breakdown like the 2006 Red Sox did, but I'm not betting it. Talentwise, I don't see any dropoff from last season. But 100 wins will be tough to repeat.

Of course, when I do my predictions, I'm picking the Red Sox to win the division, the Rays to finish second and the Yankees to finish third. That's because the three teams are close enough in my estimation that they could finish in any order, so I might as well pick it the way I want to see it.

This would scare me a little:

PLAYER W L S ERA
------ - - - --- - --
A Burnett 1 1 0 5.52
A Aceves 1 2 0 6.06
C Sabathia 1 1 0 6.43
J Chamberlai 0 0 1 12.97

I know it's only Spring, but they sure are starting off slow. And do we expect Aceves to do another Aaron Small impersonation this year? Aaron Small wasn't even capable of that... And why does aaron have two a's? Weird..

Because it was in response to Jabanga's post that the Yankees' rotation is something to be feared. Yes, it's good enough to win because of the line up, but that alone does not make it feared. That's like saying the Saints' D was feared because it was good enough to win behind one of the top offenses.